US Economic Outlook: Overinflated Numbers, USD Weakness, and Gold's Potential Rise

03.01.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.4300-1.4500

Euro 1.4720-1.4930

Sterling 1.7740-1.7920

WTI Oil (opening level) $73.04

The CAD is opening at 1.4395 ( 0.6947)

I don't expect the CAD to move until next week from the current area of 1.44's.

I have been hearing that the economic numbers in the USA since August were over inflated to the positive for the USA, and the actual numbers do not paint a rozy picture. This will mean a difficult start for the Trump administration if true. Part of me will be watching with interest if the good times are behind us and the USA markets start to weaken to properly reflect reality. So the currency markets may take back some of the USD strength (see the USD Index at 1.09 probably come back to 1.06)

If I am right then watch the price of gold climb higher, as the 50 day moving average is broken and the signal goes out to buy gold.

All of this has to wait for the January 20 start date before we will know more.

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