Gold Hits Record High as Markets Brace for Tariff Impact

14.03.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.4300-1.4540

Euro 1.5580-1.5800

Sterling 1.8530-1.8760

WTI Oil (opening level) $67.27

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4422 ( 0.6934 )

· Gold and silver extended their rallies, with gold hitting a fresh record just below USD 3,000, and silver reaching an October high near USD 34 before profit-taking emerged amid signs the US government may avoid a shutdown. Overall, both metals, and their miners, continue to benefit from investors seeking safer assets due to concerns about the economic impact of Trump's aggressive tariffs agenda. In addition, demand from central banks and inflows into ETFs continue.

· Consolidation of the weak US dollar move continued in choppy fashion, with the big dollar perhaps firming on the signs that the Democrats in the US Senate will not step in to trigger a government shutdown this weekend. EURUSD rebounded yesterday from a local low near 1.0825, managing 1.0878 before retreating and slipping below 1.0840 in the Asian session.

Headlines

· Market risk sentiment improved overnight amid signs the US may avoid a shutdown after Democratic leader Chuck Schumer dropped a threat to block a key spending bill. Markets shook off the S&P 500’s entry into a correction, with China higher on optimism Beijing will announce support to boost consumption.

· Trump threatened a 200% tariff on EU wine and alcoholic beverages in response to the EU's new 50% tariffs on US whiskey. Geopolitical tensions rose as Russia rejected the 30-day ceasefire accepted by Ukraine and supported by the US.

· US initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 220,000, below the expected 225,000, marking a three-week low. Recurring claims dropped by 27,000 to 1,870,000 in late February, under the anticipated 1,900,000. These figures indicate a tight labour market despite ongoing tightening.

· Eurozone industrial output rose by 0.8% in January 2025, surpassing the expected 0.6% and reversing December's 0.4% decline. Growth was driven by intermediate goods (up 1.6%) and capital goods (up 0.5%), while non-durable consumer goods (-3.1%), energy (-1.2%), and durable consumer goods (-0.2%) saw declines.

· US producer prices were flat, following a revised 0.6% rise and below the expected 0.3% gain, marking a seven-month low. Services prices fell 0.2%, led by a 1.4% drop in machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins. Declines were also seen in food and alcohol retailing, automobiles retailing, apparel, chemicals wholesaling, and real estate loans.

Key Points

· Equities: US stocks slump; tariffs escalate trade war; Intel surges, Adobe plunges; EU spirits stocks hit hard; China rallies on stimulus hopes

· Volatility: VIX rises but stabilizing; tariff uncertainty dominates; traders pricing in lower vol ahead

· Digital Assets: Crypto stocks slide; JPMorgan sees mining shift to HPC

· Currencies: US dollar putting up some fight after recent weakening move as US government shutdown risks drop.

· Fixed Income: US and European yields ease lower after recent cycle highs.

· Commodities: Gold rally's to $3000. Crude supported by Iran sanctions

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