Pharma Reviews Deepen USD Slide on Trade Tensions

16.04.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3790-1.4030

Euro 1.5710-1.5930

Sterling 1.8350-1.8580

WTI Oil (opening level) $61.82

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3919 ( 0.7184 )

Investors continue to dump the US Dollar amid fears that the escalating tariff war between the USA and China would result in a stagflation. The incapability of the US to meet lost imports from China in terms of quantity and prices in a short span of time could lead to an increase in inflationary pressures and slow down the economic growth.

Headlines

· U.S. reviews pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports before Trump's tariff announcements. Reports indicate China halted Boeing jet deliveries amid the trade war. The White House press secretary said the U.S. is open to a deal, but it's up to China to reach out first. Canada granted temporary six-month relief from counter-tariffs on U.S. goods used in manufacturing, processing, and food packaging.

· China's economy grew 5.4% y/y in Q1, beating estimates following a sharp uptick in March. The Chinese government is considering stimulus measures to offset the tariff shock, including cutting interest rates, increasing fiscal borrowing, and boosting domestic consumption and investment.

· UK March CPI out this morning at +0.3% MoM and 2.6% at the headline versus +0.4% / 2.7% expected, respectively, and 2.8% YoY in Feb. The core CPI rose 3.4% YoY as expected, down from 3.5% in Feb. The CPI Services figure for the month was 4.7% YoY vs. 4.8% expected and 5.0% in Feb.

· Canada's annual inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to 2.3% in March from February's 2.6%, potentially giving the Bank of Canada room to pause its easing campaign or even cut interest rates for an eighth straight time today to strengthen the economy amid tepid growth and weak consumer spending.

· U.S. import prices decreased by 0.1%, contrary to expectations, following a revised 0.2% rise in February. This was the first drop since September 2024, driven by a 2.3% fall in fuel prices. Nonfuel import prices increased by 0.1%, with gains in capital goods, industrial supplies, and foods offsetting declines in consumer goods and vehicles.

Key Points

· Equities: Mixed US markets; Nvidia plunges; Europe gains on tariff pause hopes; Asia pressured by US-China tensions

· Volatility: VIX slightly down, futures indicate elevated anxiety amid Nvidia impact

· Digital Assets: Slight declines on tariff uncertainty; China crypto strategy adds uncertainty

· Currencies: USD tanks overnight on Trump administration moves to restrict chip exports to China

· Fixed Income: US treasury yields dip at front-end of curve overnight on risk aversion

· Commodities: Gold hovers near $3300, a +25% YTD gain

· Macro events: US Retail Sales, Industrial Production & Bank of Canada Rate Decision

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