Dollar Dives, Loonie Climbs: USD/CAD Nears Breakout Point

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3680-1.3910

Euro                 1.5800-1.6030

Sterling            1.8370-1.8600

WTI Oil (opening level) $62.81

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3805 ( 0.7243 )

The USD/CAD pair slides to near 1.3800 in Monday’s European session, the lowest level seen in six months. The Loonie pair slumps as the USD underperforms its peers, with the Federal Reserve under threat from USA President Trump. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, plunges to a fresh three-year low near 98.00.

The Greenback continues to face pressure as doubts over its safe haven status have escalated with Trump aiming to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not reducing interest rates and guiding a “wait and see” mode on sticky consumer inflation expectations.

The credibility of the USD was already challenged by ever-changing statements from Donald Trump on his tariff policies, which clouded the uncertainty over the global economic outlook, including the USA 

Meanwhile, the uncertainty over Trump’s protectionist policies could diminish as Washington has expressed optimism over a US-China trade deal. “We're confident it will work out with China,” US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said over the weekend.

In the Canada, Liberal leader Mark Carney vows tax cuts and an increase in defense spending to ease reliance on the US in the face of Trump’s tariff policies. Such a scenario will stimulate economic growth.

USD/CAD trades at a make-or-break level near the upward-sloping trendline around 1.3800, which is plotted from the May 2021 low of 1.2031 on a weekly timeframe.

The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has started declining near 1.4140, suggesting that the trend is weak.

The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 40.00 for the first time in almost four years. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if it stays below the 40.00 level.

More downside towards the psychological support of 1.3500 and the September 24 low of 1.3430 looks likely if the pair breaks below the round-level figure of 1.3600.

In an alternate scenario, a recovery move by the pair above the psychological level of 1.4000 will support it to move further to near the April 9 low of 1.4075, followed by the April 8 low of 1.4272.