Weak USD, Rising Yields: Markets Signal Deficit Anxiety

22.05.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3750-1.3990

Euro 1.5770-1.5800

Sterling 1.8520-1.8740

WTI Oil (opening level) $60.71

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3876 ( 0.7207 )

The USD continued to trade on the weak side, as the move above 1.1300 in EURUSD held and the USD Index challenged below the psychologically important 100.00 level trading 99.60-75 overnight

USD/CAD has squeezed a little higher from yesterday’s intraday low just above 1.38 but gains are not compelling and run counter to the generally USD-negative tone on the longer run charts. Intraday, daily and—just about—weekly trend momentum studies are tilting USD bearish which should limit USD gains to the 1.39 area (former support, now resistance). Weekly price patterns are shaping up bearishly for the USD which may mean more pressure on the 1.3745/50 major support zone can develop in the next few weeks.

Headlines

Concerns regarding Trump’s tax bill with an agreement on SALT deductions. Some Republican hardliners remain concerned about insufficient spending cuts, while the CBO estimates the bill will add USD 2.3 trillion to deficits over the next decade, raising fiscal fears.
Investors are pushing back against Trump's tax-cut plans on concerns it would add trillions of dollars to already bulging deficits, and through their recent actions, which have sent long-end Treasury yields, gold, and Bitcoin higher, and the dollar and equities lower, they are signaling that sustainability issues cannot be ignored.
Japan's core machinery orders rose 13% to ¥1.01 trillion in March 2025, surpassing expectations and reaching a two-decade high due to strong demand. The Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.0 in May, marking the eleventh consecutive month of contraction but the softest decline since February.
The average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US increased by 6bps to 6.92%, the highest in three months, due to higher Treasury yields amid inflation and deficit concerns. A year ago, rates were 7.08%. Jumbo loan rates rose to 6.94%, and FHA-backed mortgage rates went up to 6.6%.
UK's inflation rate rose to 3.5%, the highest since January 2024, from 2.6% in March, surpassing the forecast of 3.3%. Housing and utilities prices drove the increase, with electricity and gas prices rising due to the new Ofgem energy price cap. Housing rents rose by 6.3%, slower than March's 7.2%.

Key Points

Equities: S yields surge; stocks tumble; tech outperforms in EU; UK inflation up; Asia follows Wall St.

Volatility: VIX spikes to 20.87; short-term jitters; hedging robust; backwardation signals event risk

Digital assets: BTC all-time high; IBIT inflows; US crypto legislation; mainstream adoption grows

Fixed Income: Long US treasury yields jump to new highs after soft auction of 20-year treasuries

Currencies: USD trades sideways, JPY firms again after brief stumble overnight

Commodities: Gold, silver and platinum’s gains continues amid US debt worries

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