Japan Inflation Eases, Retail Growth Slows, Jobs Hold Steady

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3520-1.3760
Euro 1.5830-1.6080
Sterling 1.8630-1.8870
WTI Oil (opening level) $65.87
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3651 ( 0.7326 )
Headlines
· The US economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, the first decline in three years, driven by reduced consumer spending and exports. Consumer spending rose 0.5%, the slowest since 2020, and exports grew 0.4%.
· According to Reuters, Trump announced signing a deal with China on Wednesday and mentioned a potential upcoming deal with India, adding that China is beginning to open up.
· Core consumer prices in Tokyo's Ku-area increased by 3.1% in June 2025, down from 3.6% in May and below the expected 3.3%. This is the first slowdown since February, but still above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.
· Japan's retail sales grew by 2.2% in May 2025, below the expected 2.7% and slower than April's revised 3.5%. This marked the 38th consecutive month of growth, supported by rising wages.
· Japan's unemployment rate remained at 2.5% in May 2025 for the third month, meeting expectations. Unemployment dropped by 40,000 to 1.72 million, while employment increased by 33,000 to a record 68.37 million.
· Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez risks a backlash from the Trump administration for opting out of the NATO commitment by European members signed this week to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. Trump said that Spain was trying to get a "free ride" and would pay twice the tariff rates of other EU countries, theoretically not possible to enforce if the US strikes a deal with the EU as a whole.
Key Points
· Equities: US tech, banks rally; defense stocks surge; tariff risks ease
· Volatility: VIX drops; stable environment; watch for sudden shifts
· Digital assets: BTC steady; IBIT/ETHA inflows; crypto ETFs expand; mining sector consolidates
· Fixed Income: US yields soften on persistent Fed Chair speculation
· Currencies: USD consolidates after hitting three-year low
· Commodities: Steep weekly loss led by energy, grains and tired-looking gold
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.2700-1.2800
Euro 1.5600-1.5700
Sterling 1.7300-1.7400
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4210-1.4420
Euro 1.5310-1.5530
Sterling 1.8410-1.8630
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3550-1.3650
Euro 1.4350-1.4450
Sterling 1.6400-1.6500