Battle for the Rate: USD/CAD Under Pressure Amid Potential Fed Rate Cut

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3580-1.3820

Euro                 1.5860-1.6100

Sterling            1.8340-1.8590

WTI Oil (opening level) $66.99

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3705 ( 0.7297 )

·    Loonie edges lower as yields fall despite upbeat US data.

·    USD/CAD pressured by Fed's Waller calls for a July rate cut.

·    USD/CAD dips below the 50-day SMA, bringing the 20-day SMA into play.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is calling for the Fed to adopt a more accommodative stance at the next FOMC meeting. In an interview with Bloomberg on Friday, Waller stated, “It makes sense to cut the FOMC’s policy rate by 25 basis points two weeks from now.” He continued to explain that the private sector employment data has been showing clear signs of slowing and that inflation risks arising from tariffs will likely be temporary.

Despite the Housing Starts and Building Permit data released on Friday which reflected a strong rebound in the real-estate market in June, an increase in Fed rate cuts for the September meeting have placed pressure on USD/CAD.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan released the first set of preliminary Sentiment data for July, which rose to 61.8, from 60.7 in June and higher than the estimate of 61.5. This reflects an increase in consumer confidence in the US. 

Recent data reflects a resilient US economy, which has led to expectations that the Fed may maintain rates within the 4.25%-4.50% range for longer, Waller's comments have pushed yields lower. Additionally, political uncertainty over the future of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the lack of progress in trade talks prior to the August deadline may continue to limit the US Dollar's strength.

With traders continuing to monitor Fed expectations and trade tensions closely, a temporary pullback in the Greenback on Friday has provided some relief for CAD.

The USD/CAD daily chart reflects a market in consolidation after a prolonged downtrend, with price action currently hovering near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-February rally at 1.3714.

The pair is trading slightly above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3674, indicating modest short-term support, while the 50-day SMA at 1.3733 acts as immediate resistance.