USD/CAD Outlook: Rangebound as BoC Survey Shows Modest Economic Confidence

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3550-1.3790

Euro                 1.5870-1.6110

Sterling            1.8310-1.8560

WTI Oil (opening level) $65.35

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3678 ( 0.7311 )

USD/CAD remains rangebound between 1.3550 and 1.3800 as the Bank of Canada’s latest survey offers little urgency for immediate easing. While future sales expectations dipped, stable hiring plans and anchored inflation keep markets cautious about near-term rate cuts,

USD/CAD price action will likely stay with its multi-week 1.3550-1.3800 range.

The BOC’s Q2 Business Outlook Survey does not offer a clear-cut case for further easing. Indications of future sales by firms fell to a one year low at 6 vs. 13 in Q1 but the outlook for export sales improved.

A majority of firms plan to keep employment steady and inflation expectations remain within the Bank’s target range. The swaps curve still implies less than 10% odds of a 25bps cut at the next July 30 meeting and 80% probability of a final 25bps cut in the next 12 months

The currency pair is thus expected to stay in the current range into the next quarter.