Shifting Tides: Currency Ranges, Metal Moves, and Policy Signals

08.08.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3610-1.3860

Euro 1.5880-1.6130

Sterling 1.8320-1.8580

WTI Oil (opening level) $64.20

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3732 ( 0.7282 )

The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is extending its losses and traded below 98.0 overnight. Last week’s weaker-than-expected employment report reinforced expectations for a rate cut in September, with another possible in December.

Gold has experienced a complete reversal over the past two weeks — from testing intermediate trendline support at $3,277 to breaking short-term resistance and challenging June’s high of $3,499. Overnight it hit $3,404. The latest catalyst? Tariffs — and here’s the twist: 100 oz gold bars are subject to reciprocal tariffs and not exempt, as many had assumed. That’s stoking tension and uncertainty, fueling demand for this classic safe-haven asset. A decisive move above that opens the door to what I think will become a FOMO trade – only sending gold higher.

Headlines

Trump said he had chosen Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve as a Federal Reserve governor, replacing the expiring term of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler who recently resigned and who’s term ends in January. Miran, who will need to be confirmed by the US Senate, is likely to provide another voice to support easier Fed policy and recently he has been a sharp Fed critic proposing changes that some would view as unorthodox.
The premium for gold futures in New York over the London spot price jumped after the Financial Times reported that US imports of one-kilogram gold bullion bars are now subject to tariffs. According to a July 31 letter from the US Customs Border Protection agency, one-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to levies. The announcement has once again uprooted the mechanics of the market and the normal price relationship between futures and the London spot market.
Trump said he’d be willing to meet with vladimir putin, even if putin hadn’t yet agreed to also sit down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Trump told reporters he was “very disappointed” with putin’s behavior and left open the possibility of additional penalties over the war in Ukraine as soon as Friday.

Key Points

Equities: US mixed; Europe up on earnings; UK down post-BoE cut; Japan surges on tariff clarity
Volatility: VIX mid-teens; options imply modest swings; SPX ±~35pts
Digital assets: BTC/ETH firm; IBIT, ETHA higher; policy and legal wins boost sentiment
Fixed Income: US treasury yields quiet despite weak T-bond auction, Fed governor nomination
Currencies: Sterling rallies on surprisingly heavy dissent on BoE’s rate cut
Commodities: COMEX gold futures spike on tariff shock

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