US–China Chip Tensions Rise as Nvidia Faces New Restrictions

12.08.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3670-1.3920

Euro 1.5900-1.6150

Sterling 1.8430-1.8680

WTI Oil (opening level) $63.72

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3801 ( 0.7246 )

The Canadian Dollar remains on its back foot against a slightly firmer US Dollar, weighed by the low Oil, which keeps the USD/CAD pair on track for a four-day negative movement for CAD, with all eyes on the US CPI report

Investors remain wary of selling USD ahead of the release of July’s US inflation figures. The market consensus points to a moderate increase in inflationary pressures, which might dampen hopes of a September rate cut triggered by the weak US employment figures and dovish comments by Fed officials.

Headlines

· Trump extended the tariff truce with China by 90 days, postponing duty hikes until mid-November. This keeps tariffs at 30% for Chinese goods and 10% for US goods, avoiding a sharp rise to 145% and 125%. The delay aids lower tariff rates on holiday imports like electronics and toys. Trump also urged China to quadruple U.S. soybean purchases, but no deal was confirmed.

· Trump said he would consider a deal to allow Nvidia to sell a scaled-back version of Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell chip to China, if Nvidia “takes 30-50% off of it”. This came after a separate recent announcement allowing the company to sell its less-advance H20 chips to China as long as 15% of the revenue was charged as an export duty.

· China urged its firms to avoid using Nvidia’s H20 chips, especially for government-related applications, according to unnamed sources at Bloomberg, with some indications that AMD chips are also in the purview of the request. Chinese media reports have questioned the security of Nvidia-based systems and H20 processors.

· Gold futures traded on New York's Comex and the global benchmark for spot prices in London were little changed, with spreads returning to normal after Trump announced that gold would not be tariffed, countering a great deal of confusion last Friday, which temporarily caused mayhem and threatened to disrupt the triangular flow of gold between New York, London, and Switzerland, the world's top refinery hub.

· As universally expected, Australia’s Reserve Bank cut its policy rate a third time for the cycle overnight by 25 basis points to 3.60% and said that further cuts would depend on incoming data. In response, short Australian rates dipped slightly and the Australian dollar softened to a new three day low near 0.6500 versus the US dollar.

Key Points

· Equities: calm into cpi; chips in focus; europe mixed; asia constructive

· Volatility: mid-teens vix; short-dated elevated; event-risk setup; spx ±42pts

· Digital assets: btc/eth firm; ibit inflows; etha mixed; hedging into cpi

· Fixed Income: US treasuries hold breath ahead of US CPI release.

· Currencies: USD firms ahead of pivotal US CPI release. USDJPY above 148.00

· Commodities: ETF buyers support gold. Grain markets await key supply and demand report.

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