USD/CAD holds firm ahead of FOMC Minutes as Trump-putin talks fail to deliver breakthrough
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3670-1.3920
Euro 1.6000-1.6250
Sterling 1.6550-1.6650
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3795 ( 0.7249 )
The high-stakes meeting between Trump and putin in Alaska yielded no clear breakthrough. Trump, however, said early Monday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy can end the war with russia almost immediately if he wants to. Trump and Zelenskiy, along with the key European leaders, will meet later today to discuss ending the war. This keeps Crude Oil prices depressed near a two-month low touched last week. Apart from this, trade uncertainty, along with the Bank of Canada's dovish tilt, could weigh on the CAD and support the USD/CAD pair.
Traders also seem reluctant and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path before positioning for the next leg of a directional move. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of the FOMC meeting Minutes on Wednesday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium during the latter part of the week. Apart from this, Canadian consumer inflation figures on Tuesday should contribute to infusing some volatility around the USD/CAD pair.
Headlines
- Trump’s unsuccessful meeting with Putin in Alaska saw him walk back on his own call for a ceasefire while reportedly endorsing a russian demand for Ukraine to cede the Donbas region, including territory currently controlled by Ukraine forces. He will meet Zelenskiy and European leaders Monday to address Europe's deadliest war in 80 years. Trump also postponed immediate tariffs on nations buying russian oil, such as China, but may consider them soon.
- The annual Economic Policy Symposium will kick off Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Chair Jerome Powell is expected to unveil the Fed's new policy framework. Powell's speech could give Fed watchers a fresh update on how much support there is to lower rates in September, as policymakers have become divided on when to resume rate cuts.
- University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment dropped to 58.6 in August 2025 from 61.7 in July, below the expected 62, driven by inflation concerns and poor buying conditions for durable goods. Despite slight improvement in future personal finances, inflation and unemployment worries persist.
- US retail sales increased 0.5% in July 2025, matching forecasts after a 0.9% rise in June. Leading gains were motor vehicle & parts dealers (1.6%) and furniture stores (1.4%), with other increases in sporting goods, nonstore retailers, clothing stores, and gasoline stations.
- US industrial production fell 0.1% in July 2025, missing expectations of a flat result, after a revised 0.4% rise in June. Manufacturing output, comprising 78% of total production, rose 0.1% after a 0.3% increase in June.
Key Points
- Equities: U.S. mixed; Europe steady; Asia mixed; UK softer after record highs.
- Volatility: VIX at 15.1; Sep VIX futures at 18.5; options imply 0.95% SPX daily move.
- Fixed Income: US Treasury yields sideways after Friday sell-off
- Digital Assets: Sell-off develops in Asia overnight. BTC $115.7k (-2.1%), ETH $4.3k (-3.3%).
- Currencies: JPY weakens at start of week, USD steady
- Commodities: Steady start to the week for key raw materials
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Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.2100-1.2200
Euro 1.4700-1.4800
Sterling 1.7050-1.7150
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Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3250-1.3350
Euro 1.4550-1.4650
Sterling 1.7100-1.7200
