Dollar and Yen Lead as Smaller G10 Currencies Slide

20.08.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3690-1.3940

Euro 1.6030-1.6280

Sterling 1.8570-1.8820

WTI Oil (opening level) $62.68

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3872 ( 0.7209 )

The US dollar and Japanese yen were the two winners in a day marked by risk aversion yesterday, as the smaller G10 currencies were the weakest – including the Canadian dollar, which was weighed down by a soft CPI report yesterday. USDCAD spiked higher and challenged above 1.3882 briefly overnight, the highest level since May, while AUDUSD dipped below 0.6550, nearing its lowest level since May, the early August level of 0.6419.

Headlines

· Canada’s annual CPI eased to 1.7% in July, below forecasts and the BoC’s 2% target for the fourth straight month. Falling gasoline prices, down 16.1%, were the main drag, while food and shelter costs rose to 3.3% and 3%, respectively. The “trimmed mean” core measure of inflation was out at 3.0% vs. 3.1% expected and 3.0% in Jun.

· UK Jul. CPI out at +0.1% MoM and +3.8% YoY vs. 0.0%/3.7% expected, respectively, while the core CPI was out at 3.8% YoY vs. 3.7% expected and 3.7% in Jun. and the CPI Services figure was a hot 5.0% vs. 4.8% expected and 4.7% last year.

· New Zealand’s Reserve Bank cut its Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 3.00% as widely expected. The forward guidance, however, was more dovish than the market expected and the vote of 4-2 to cut by 25 rather than 50 basis points was the most divided vote in the central bank’s history.

· U.S. housing starts rose in July to an annualized rate of 1.428 million from a revised 1.358M in June, beating expectations of a drop to 1.29M. This marks the strongest pace in five months. Growth was led by multi-unit housing (up 11.6% to 470K), outpacing single-unit starts (up 2.8% to 939K).

· US building permits fell in July to an annualized rate of 1.354M vs 1.385M expected and 1.393M in Jun.

· Japan’s trade deficit narrowed to JPY 117.6 billion in July, down from JPY 628.3 billion a year earlier but missing forecasts for a surplus. Exports fell 2.6%—the steepest drop since Feb 2021—due to U.S. tariffs, while imports declined 7.5%, less than expected.

Key Points

· Equities: Tech-led U.S. pullback ahead of Jackson Hole and retail earnings; Europe climbed on discretionary strength; Asia weak with Hong Kong softer and Japan lower

· Volatility: VIX 15.6 with mild contango to Sep future 18.0; options imply a 62.9-point SPX move, or 1.0%

· Fixed Income: US and European yields edge slightly lower, Japan’s yields steady

· Digital Assets: BTC $112,778 (−3.0%), ETH $4,074 (−5.6%) on the 00:00 UTC cut; U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw $121.7m net outflows led by IBIT (−$68.7m) and ARKB (−$65.7m).

· Currencies: USD and JPY the winners, CAD and NZD the losers in a day marred by weak risk sentiment in the US and Japan.

· Commodities: Metal fatigue seen as traders eye peace talks; coffee powers higher

· Macro events: US 20-year Treasury note auction, US FOMC Minutes

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