Tariff Relief on U.S. Goods Signals De-Escalation in North American Trade Tensions
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3730-1.3980
Euro 1.6010-1.6260
Sterling 1.8550-1.8800
WTI Oil (opening level) $63.65
Trade dynamics between the United States and Canada are back in focus after Prime Minister Carney confirmed on Friday that Ottawa will remove counter-tariffs on all US goods covered under the USMCA, effective September 1. The rollback, which applies to over $21 billion worth of US exports, including consumer staples such as wine, juice, household appliances, and packaged foods, marks a significant de-escalation in bilateral tensions.
Carney emphasized that Canada “currently has the best trade deal with the US” and highlighted the importance of preserving that advantage. However, tariffs on strategic sectors such as autos, aluminum, and steel will remain in place, as both sides “intensify discussions to address current trade challenges.” He also noted that it is “possible to have a deal with the US that applies to strategic sectors before the USMCA review officially begins,” hinting at a proactive effort to resolve disputes ahead of the 2026 review window.
Headlines
- Trump moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage document falsification, but she says he lacks authority to fire her, and she won’t quit. The clash could open the door for Trump to secure a Fed board majority.
- Trump threatened to impose fresh tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation against other nations’ digital services taxes that hit American technology companies.
- U.S. new single-family home sales fell 0.6% in July 2025 to an annual rate of 652,000 units, surpassing expectations of 630,000 but down from June's revised 4.1% increase.
- The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing activity index decreased to -1.8 in August 2025 from 0.9 in July, signalling mild contraction. The production index dropped to 15.3 from 21.3 but stayed above average. New orders turned positive at 5.8, the first rise since January. Capacity utilization fell to 13.7 from 17.3. Shipments surged 12 points to 14.2, a three-year high. The employment index remained at 8.8, with 20% of firms hiring and 11% laying off staff.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dipped to -0.19 in July from -0.18 in June, indicating U.S. economic activity was below trend for the fourth month. While only one category worsened, three continued to negatively impact the index.
Key Points
- Equities: U.S. paused after Friday’s surge ahead of Nvidia; Europe slipped with banks soft but M&A spikes; Asia firmer led by Hong Kong and mainland China; UK shut for Summer Bank Holiday
- Volatility: Vol stays calm in mild contango; options price a 0.9% SPX move
- Digital Assets: Ether rises while Bitcoin is flat; U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs see net inflows
- Fixed Income: US yield curve steepens, Germany-France yield spread widening on French political turmoil
- Currencies: EURUSD chops lower than back slightly higher French political turmoil versus Trump Fed interference
- Commodities: Trouble at the Fed supports gold, crude pauses after four-day gain
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Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3700-1.3940
Euro 1.5530-1.5760
Sterling 1.8530-1.8750
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.2625-1.2725
Euro 1.4800-1.4900
Sterling 1.7350-1.7450
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.2400-1.2500
Euro 1.4350-1.4450
Sterling 1.6800-1.6900
