Fed Beige Book Flags Stagnant Growth; US Job Openings Hit 11-Month Low

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3710-1.3960

Euro                 1.5970-1.6220

Sterling            1.8450-1.8700

WTI Oil (opening level) $63.34

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3830 ( 0.7230 )

Headlines

·    The US Fed Beige Book showed very little to no growth across most of the US in recent weeks. Fed contacts reported that consumers are spending less as wages aren’t rising as fast as prices, with price rises noted in every region. Of the Fed’s 12 districts, 11 described static employment levels, and one district reported a decline.

·    US job openings fell by 176,000 to 7.18 million in July 2025, the lowest since September 2024 and below expectations of 7.4 million. Health care, arts, entertainment, recreation, mining, and logging saw significant declines. Regionally, the South had the largest drop (-161,000), while the West gained 113,000 openings.

·    US manufactured goods orders decreased by 1.3% to $603.6 billion in July 2025, following a steep 4.8% decline. Transportation equipment orders fell (-9.5%), notably nondefense aircraft and parts (-32.7%). In contrast, orders for machinery, primary metals, and computers rose slightly.

·    The UK Services PMI increased to 54.2 in August 2025, the highest since April 2024. New business saw strong growth, while employment declined for the eleventh month. Input and output prices rose sharply. Business sentiment improved, with 49% expecting higher activity next year.

·    The Eurozone Composite PMI rose slightly to 51 in August 2025, up from 50.9, surpassing expectations of 50.7. This marks the third consecutive month of expanding private sector activity, with manufacturing rebounding (50.7) and slower growth in services (50.5). New orders increased for the first time in 15 months, despite a decline in export orders.

Key Points

·    Equities: U.S. tech strength offset cyclicals; Europe rebounded as bond jitters eased; Hong Kong slipped as property and defensives unwound gains

·    Volatility: VIX mid-teens, calm trading

·    Digital Assets: BTC ~$111k, ETH ~$4.4k, ETF flows mixed, DeFi lending up, miners report higher output

·    Fixed Income: Easing stress on global bond markets as US treasury yields set the tone

·    Currencies: USD adrift as sterling gets a boost from easing pressure on global bond markets.

·    Commodities: Oil drops on OPEC+ supply risk. Gold and silver rally stalls