Government Reopens, USD Weakens

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3870-1.4120

Euro                 1.6140-1.6390

Sterling            1.8320-1.8570

WTI Oil (opening level) $58.83

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4000 ( 0.7143 )

The end of the US government shutdown has triggered a moderate enthusiasm that is weighing the US Dollar across the board, and pushing the USD/CAD below the 1.4000 line.

Markets are celebrating that President Trump signed the bill that will allow for the reopening of the federal government, and the release of a backlog of delayed macroeconomic figures. The data on the releases, however, remains unclear, and the White House stated that some figures, such as October’s jobs and consumer inflation data, may never be published.

Headlines

• The US House of Representatives passed a bill to re-open the government and President Trump signed it, which will end the US shutdown, eventually allowing the official US economic data releases to gradually resume.
• Japan's producer prices rose 2.7% year-on-year in October 2025, slightly down from 2.8% in September but above the expected 2.5%. Most components saw price growth, though slower, while chemicals, iron and steel, and petroleum and coal products experienced further declines. Monthly prices increased 0.4%, below the 0.5% forecast.
• Fed's Williams stated that once reserves are ample, gradual bond-buying will resume soon, requiring expansion of holdings. He noted determining ample reserves is 'inexact,' and balance sheet expansion is technical, not monetary policy.
• Australia's unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October 2025, beating expectations of 4.4% and down from 4.5% in September. Unemployment dropped by 17,000 to 665,400, while employment rose by 42,200 to a record 14.68 million, exceeding a forecasted 20,000 increase..

Key Points

• Equities: US healthcare and AI chips lifted the Dow to new records, Europe broke to fresh highs, Asia mostly firmer with Japan and Hong Kong up
• Volatility: calm conditions, CPI in focus, SPX expected move ±53, downside skew persists
• Digital Assets: BTC steady, selective alt-coin strength, IBIT/ETHA consolidate, macro data key
• Currencies: USD sideways, perhaps in part as traders concerned Japan’s officialdom may react to USDJPY above 155.00
• Commodities: Tight supply drives silver toward record while ample supply hits crude prices
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields slightly higher after gapping lower yesterday on soft ADP payrolls data released during Tuesday holiday.