Sentiment at Lows Despite Uptick — CAD Under Pressure

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3990-1.4240

Euro                 1.6160-1.6410

Sterling            1.8370-1.8620

WTI Oil (opening level) $58.02

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4108 ( 0.7088 )

The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index slipped 1.4% last week, its first decline in six weeks, as fading risk appetite triggered broad losses across the complex. Energy led the setback, with crude and fuel products under pressure as traders weighed the potential supply implications of a Ukraine–Russia peace deal that could add barrels to an already well-supplied market and ease tightness in refined products. Metals held up comparatively well. Copper, silver and gold posted only modest declines, with gold maintaining support above USD 4,000 and HG copper holding above USD 5. Agriculture fell 0.7%, dragged lower by cocoa, cattle, corn, and coffee.

Headlines

• New York Fed President John Williams signalled scope to lower rates in the near term as the labour market softens, citing rising employment risks, easing inflation risks, and modestly restrictive policy, prompting investors to raise December cut odds to about 75% from roughly 40%, as traders acknowledge the wide divergence within the Fed's monetary policy committee.
• US consumer sentiment as at record lows in November, according to the final Nov. University of Michigan Sentiment survey, although the sentiment numbers were slightly improved relative the preliminary release of the survey. Still, current conditions are at a record low and personal finances worst since 2009, as high prices, softer incomes, and job-loss risk (highest since July 2020) darkened the outlook.
• US officials are in early talks about allowing Nvidia to sell H200 AI chips to China, with no decision and licence approvals still required, and some in the Trump administration viewing it as a compromise concession to Beijing likely to face strong opposition from China hawks.
• US-Ukrainian talks in Geneva made progress toward a deal, with the two sides drafting “an updated and refined peace framework” and agreeing to continue intensive work on joint proposals, while US Sec of State Rubio said Trump’s proposed Nov. 27 deadline to secure Ukraine’s support for a US-backed peace plan isn’t set in stone

Key Points

• Equities: Wall Street rebounded on rising December cut odds, Europe slipped again on tech and defence selling, Asia ended the week weaker
• Volatility: VIX lower, macro-heavy week ahead, SPX weekly move ±135
• Digital assets: BTC stabilising, ETF outflows persist, ETH firmer, alt-coins cautious
• Currencies: JPY a bit weaker again after firming sharply Friday. USD flat, sterling firms ahead of key budget statement.
• Commodities: Broad losses last week led by energy amid peace talks; gold holds above support.
• Fixed Income: US yields edge lower as odds of December rate cut rise