Pharmaceutical Trade Flows and Weak Pharma Exports Shape Global Market Backdrop

12.12.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3640-1.3890

Euro 1.6010-1.6260

Sterling 1.8280-1.8530

WTI Oil (opening level) $57.61

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3769 ( 0.7263 )

USD/CAD sits below the descending 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3921, keeping the short-term bias bearish and capping rebounds.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 28 is oversold, flagging stretched downside conditions. Measured from the 1.3543 low to the 1.4142 high, the 61.8% retracement at 1.3772 offers interim support. A close below it would open the 78.6% retracement at 1.3671.

Downside pressure persists while price holds under the 20-EMA, with recovery attempts expected to struggle against this dynamic barrier. RSI remains below 30 and would need to rebound to stabilize momentum. A move back above the 20-EMA at 1.3921 would ease the bearish tone and allow a corrective bounce, whereas failure to defend 1.3772 would keep focus on lower levels.

Headlines

US initial jobless claims rose by 44,000 to 236,000 in the week ending December 6, 2025, exceeding the 220,000 forecast and marking the largest weekly increase since March 2020. Continuing claims fell to 1,838,000, the lowest since April 2025, below the 1,950,000 forecast.
Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0%, maintaining a 0.25-point penalty on excess sight deposits, and remains ready to intervene in forex markets. Inflation dropped to 0.0% in November. The SNB projects inflation at 0.2% in 2025, 0.3% in 2026, and 0.6% in 2027 if the rate stays unchanged. Despite strong global Q3 growth, Swiss GDP fell due to reduced pharmaceutical exports. SNB expects GDP growth to be under 1.5% in 2025 and around 1% in 2026, with a modest rise in unemployment.
The US trade deficit decreased to $52.8 billion, the lowest since June 2020, from $59.3 billion in August. Exports increased 3% to $289.3 billion, led by nonmonetary gold and pharmaceuticals. Imports rose 0.6% to $342.1 billion, with growth in pharmaceuticals and nonmonetary gold. The largest deficits were with Ireland ($18.2 billion), Mexico, and the EU ($17.8 billion each), while the deficit with China narrowed to $11.4 billion.

Key Points

Equities: US rotates into value after a US Federal Reserve cut; Europe climbs with cyclicals; Asia slips on SoftBank and China worries
Volatility: VIX mid-teens, light macro, fed speakers, ai capex sensitivity
Digital assets: Crypto's steady, ETF flows still show rotation rather than risk-on
Currencies: JPY weakens again, USD firms slightly
Commodities: Tumbling natgas add fuel to weekly divergence between weak energy and surging metals
Fixed Income: US treasury- and Japanese government bond yields bounce back

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