Markets Await US Jobs Data for Clarity on Growth and Rates

16.12.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.3640-1.3890

Euro 1.6060-1.6310

Sterling 1.8310-1.8560

WTI Oil (opening level) $56.38

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3768 ( 0.7263 )

Headlines

Canada's headline inflation rate remained at 2.2% in November 2025, below the expected 2.3%, and continues to approach the Bank of Canada's projected near-term target of 2%.
Today’s US jobs report will cover November payrolls and the unemployment rate, seen rising to 4.5%, but will omit October data due to the shutdown, except for delayed payroll figures. The release will be key for assessing US labour market momentum and shaping expectations for interest rates next year, with payroll estimates ranging from –20,000 to 127,000, with 50k being the consensus level.
US negotiators offered Ukraine Article 5‑like security guarantees as part of a potential deal to end the war, as Trump said a settlement is closer than ever while suggesting Kyiv should cede territory, and European leaders issued a declaration outlining a framework with security assurances, a ceasefire‑monitoring mechanism, and support for Ukraine’s EU accession.
A growing number of Chinese economists and former central bank officials argue that the yuan is undervalued – by 25% according to Goldmans - and should strengthen to rebalance the economy away from exports and toward domestic consumption. A controlled appreciation, they say, could help narrow trade imbalances, ease trade tensions, and boost China’s overseas purchasing power.

Key Points

Equities: U.S. tech wobbles into key data, Europe rebounds despite defence dip, Asia retreats on China weakness and artificial intelligence jitters
Volatility: VIX mid-teens, skew elevated, US data cluster, retail sales focus
Digital Assets: BTC/ETH softer, IBIT flat but complex outflows, ETHA leads ether ETF outflows, crypto equities under pressure
Fixed Income: US November Jobs Report & Dec Manufacturing and Services PMI
Currencies: US dollar steady ahead of US jobs and retail sales, yen firms below 155, sterling softens into the Bank of England meeting
Commodities: Precious metals ease ahead of jobs report; crude slumps as Ukraine peace hopes grow

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