Geopolitics Lift USD as CAD Faces Oil-Market Uncertainty

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3640-1.3890

Euro                1.5950-1.6200

Sterling           1.8400-1.8650

WTI Oil (opening level) $57.71

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3767 ( 0.7264 )

USD/CAD trades a little higher than the previous close. The pair moved as the USD strengthens on safe-haven demand, driven by a renewed rise in geopolitical risks following the USA capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Trump said that the USA would oversee Venezuela until a safe, orderly, and judicious transition could take place.

Trump warned that the US could launch a new military intervention if Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, failed to meet US demands.

He also made remarks about Colombia’s leadership, floated the idea of “Operation Colombia,” criticized Mexico for not getting its act together, and suggested Cuba appeared close to collapse.

The upside of the USD/CAD pair could be capped as the commodity-linked CAD could strengthen on potential gains in Oil prices. However, if the USA brings in Venezuela's oil to refineries in the Gulf of America then what happens to demand for Canadian Oil?

Heightened volatility risks for the Canadian dollar remain in focus as markets assess potential implications for regional crude supply. While analysts currently expect limited disruption—given that Venezuela produces under 1 million barrels per day—any shift in production levels or changes in supply routes could alter oil market dynamics. Such developments may have longer-term consequences for the CAD, potentially increasing downside risks if demand for Canadian oil weakens.