USD Strength Lifts USD/CAD as Tariff Risks and Fed Outlook Drive Markets

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar         1.3590-1.3840

Euro                 1.6030-1.6280

Sterling            1.8370-1.8620

WTI Oil (opening level) $66.36

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3710 (0.7294)

USD/CAD pair trades firmly as the USD extends its recovery move, with the US Dollar Index extending its recovery move to above 97.85.
The USD demonstrates strength despite fresh tariff threats from Trump.

On Monday, Trump threatened steeper levies if countries explore benefits of Supreme Court’s blocked tariff policy, which was backed by the economic emergency law.

"Any Country that wants to ’play games’ with the ridiculous supreme court decision, especially those that have ’Ripped Off’ the U.S.A. for years, and even decades, will be met with a much higher Tariff, and worse, than that which they just recently agreed to. BUYER BEWARE!!!" Trump wrote.

On the monetary policy front, traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in its March and April policy meetings.

CAD trades broadly calm amid higher oil prices due to US-Iran tensions. Rising oil price leads to higher foreign inflows into the Canadian economy, given that the nation is the largest oil exporter to the US.

Headlines

• The EU has paused trade talks with the US and will maintain the current deal for now. President Trump warned that any attempts to play games would lead to higher tariffs.
• US manufactured goods orders dropped 0.7% to $617.5 billion in December 2025, close to expectations. Durable goods fell 1.4%, mainly due to lower transportation equipment orders. Increases were seen in computers, machinery, and metals. Nondurable goods orders were stable at $297.6 billion.
• The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing index increased to 0.2 in February 2026, showing stable conditions. Employment growth continued, workweeks lengthened, and wage growth surged. Manufacturers remain optimistic, with future production rising and business activity slightly dipping.
• Mexico’s economic activity index grew 3.3% year-on-year in December 2025, rebounding from a November dip, driven by an 11.4% surge in the primary sector. Services rose 3.2%, while the secondary sector expanded 2.4%. Monthly activity increased by 0.4%

Key Points

• Equities: Stocks fell in the U.S. and Europe on AI and tariff worries, while Hong Kong rebounded on China optimism
• Volatility: VIX above 21, tariff uncertainty, consumer confidence risk
• Digital Assets: Crypto softer, IBIT and ETHA outflows, institutional de-risking, macro-driven tone
• Fixed Income: US treasuries rally amidst weak risk sentiment
• Currencies: USD broadly firmer while JPY weakens
• Commodities: Gold and silver cool Tuesday after Monday rally extension