Iraq Oil Export Deal Relieves Supply Tensions, Calms Markets Pre-Fed

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3570-1.3820

Euro                1.5660-1.5910

Sterling           1.8140-1.8390

WTI Oil (opening level) $96.31

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3700 ( 0.7300 )

Headlines

• Risk sentiment has rebounded after the US close Tuesday as oil prices came under pressure, in part as Iraq has struck an agreement with Turkey to resume oil exports from northern Iraqi fields through a pipeline that was shut earlier this month, boosting the country’s crude output, much of which is held up by the closure of the Hormuz Strait.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at today's policy meeting as traders seek guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the impact of rising oil prices. The surge in energy prices around the world — with US diesel costs topping $5 a gallon this week at the pump — will be scrutinized by the Fed and other central bankers around the world as they steer monetary policy.
• US allies resisted President Trump's call to secure shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran allows safe passage for certain vessels through the Strait of Hormuz based on their affiliations.
• US pending home sales rose 1.8% in February 2026, surpassing expectations. Gains were seen in the Midwest, South, and West, while the Northeast declined. Year-over-year, sales fell 0.8%. Improved affordability drove the rise, but rising oil prices could affect mortgage rates.
• The New York Fed's general business activity index rose to -22.6 in March 2026 from -25.7, still indicating a sharp decline since the post-Covid recovery. The business climate index fell to -46.2, prices charged dropped to 28.8, and employment improved to -8.5. Future activity expectations fell to 12.7.

Key Points

• Equities: U.S. and Europe edged higher on travel and energy, while Asia stayed selective as chip optimism met oil anxiety.
• Volatility: Fed decision, Powell tone, oil and inflation risk, expected move elevated
• Digital Assets: Crypto rangebound, Fed focus, IBIT/ETHA inflows
• Fixed Income: Global bond markets rally on stable risk sentiment, easing oil prices.
• Currencies: USD softens, particularly against JPY on stable risk sentiment. NOK sharply higher.
• Commodities: Brent and WTI ease while refined products signal acute tightness; gold awaits FOMC rate guidance