Gold Hits One-Week High Amid Optimism Over US-Iran Ceasefire

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3470-1.3720

Euro                1.5900-1.6150

Sterling           1.8310-1.8560

WTI Oil (opening level) $90.04

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3597 ( 0.7355 )

Gold extends its intraday ascent and climbs to an over one-week high above $4700.

USD weakens across the board, amid optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal, helping gold to build on its recovery from a more than one-month low, around the $4,500 mark.

Moreover, retreating Crude Oil prices ease inflationary concerns and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve bets, which is seen as another factor driving flows towards gold for the second straight day.

Raised hopes for a peace deal, which would end the US-Israeli war in Iran and reopen the economically vital strait, boosting investors' confidence and undermining the USD's reserve currency status.

Meanwhile, the latest developments dragged crude oil prices to a one-week low, easing fears of surging consumer inflation and paving the way for the US Fed to maintain a cautious stance.

However, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool suggests that traders are now pricing in over a 35% probability that the US central bank will hike rates by the end of this year. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD and keep a lid on any further near-term appreciation for the Gold price.

Traders now look to the US ADP report on private-sector employment, due this morning.

The focus will remain the US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, which will play a key role in determining the near-term trajectory for the USD and the Gold price.

Headlines

• Trump signals progress toward a final Iran deal, saying the US will briefly pause efforts to move ships through the Strait of Hormuz, while keeping the naval blockade in place. Washington is shifting focus to reopening the strait amid foreign pressure and rising domestic opposition to the war, but US–Iran talks remain deadlocked as Tehran insists negotiations depend on lifting the US naval blockade.
• The ISM Services PMI slipped to 53.6 in April 2026 from 54, roughly in line with expectations and still above last year’s average. Activity rose to 55.9 as firms worked through backlogs while new orders fell to 53.5. The Employment index remained below 50 at 48.0 after 45.2 in March. Prices jumped to 70.7, the highest since 2022, on higher energy, metals, freight, and tariff-driven aluminum and lumber costs.
• US job openings slipped by 56,000 to 6.87 million in March 2026, above expectations. Openings fell in professional and business services but rose in finance and insurance, and declined in most regions except the Northeast. Hires rose to 5.6 million, while separations held near 5.4 million, with quits and layoffs little changed.
• The US RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped to 42.6 in May 2026 from 42.8, its lowest since June 2024 and below 50 for a ninth month. The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell to 37.8, while the Personal Financial Outlook was steady at 50.3 and Confidence in Federal Economic Policies held at 39.8.

Key Points

• Equities: US hit records on chips, Europe rebounded on earnings and Asia dipped before Korea reopened at a record.
• Volatility: VIX lower, geopolitics easing, oil and yields still key
• Digital Assets: TC ~81k; ETH steady, altcoins higher, IBIT and ETHA supportive
• Fixed Income: Yields ease lower on latest drop in crude oil prices
• Currencies: JPY rises sharply on apparent intervention, spiking volatility. AUDUSD hits new post-2022 high.
• Commodities: Crude oil drops, gold surges as hopes rise that US-Iran ceasefire will hold