The Canadian Dollar Under Pressure: What's Happening in the Markets?
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.4050-1.4300
Euro 1.6070-1.6320
Sterling 1.8850-1.9100
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4181 ( 0.7054 )
The USD/CAD pair may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 1.4182, followed by the primary barrier at the nearly 15-month high of 1.4248, reached on June 24. Further advances would expose the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4400.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4110. A break below the channel would put downward pressure on the pair to test the 50-day EMA at 1.3998.
Headlines
- The US struck Iran for a second day to curb threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, revoking Iran’s oil export waiver and threatening further escalation. Iran vowed immediate retaliation and claims to have hit US-linked bases. Both sides accuse each other of violating a fragile truce, jeopardizing stalled peace talks. Fuel prices led by diesel surged higher, gaining more than oil, after Russia announced a ban on diesel further squeezing an already tight global market.
- Fed minutes from the June meeting, released Wednesday, showed support among some members for interest rate hikes, adding to hawkish repricing across the front end of the curve. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Panel on July 15 on the semi-annual monetary policy report.
- The IMF keeps 2026 global growth at 3% and lifts 2027 to 3.4%, citing resilience to the Iran war and strong AI investment but warning of downside risks. It sees global inflation at 4.7% in 2026, easing to 3.9% in 2027.
Key Points
- Equities: US and Europe fell on oil and policy risk, Asia was mixed as chip optimism returned but China lagged.
- Volatility: Renewed US-Iran strikes lifted oil and bond yields on earlier Fed-hike bets, volatility firmed but stayed low
- Digital Assets: Crypto equities were mixed as ETFs slipped and miners diverged, while the CLARITY Act gained law-enforcement backing
- Commodities: Diesel outperforms surging oil as inflation fears hit hard assets again
- Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rise on higher oil and hawkish Fed minutes
- Currencies: The USD trades broadly flat despite higher oil prices and rising yields
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Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3550-1.3650
Euro 1.4700-1.4800
Sterling 1.6725-1.6825
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3400-1.3500
Euro 1.4600-1.4700
Sterling 1.6600-1.6700
Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3600-1.3700
Euro 1.5000-1.5100
Sterling 1.7050-1.7150
