USD Surge Hits Mexican Peso Hard: FX Markets Show Mixed Flows and Caution

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3950-1.4150

Euro                 1.4770-1.4970

Sterling            1.7670-1.7870

WTI Oil (opening level) $68.11

Looking back at last week the FX flows were mixed during the week when the USD surged over 2% (see the USD index move from 104 to 106) driven by investor concerns about impending tariffs, trade wars, and rising bond yields. These factors have forced a recalibration of the USD. Rate cut expectations, boosting the USD amid widening interest rate differentials.

The hardest hit currencies were the Euro and the Mexican Peso - both losing almost 3%. Speculative positing showed mixed responses highlighting a cautious market stance on further USD gains after the USD index hit a two year high of 107.06.

This stability stemmed form speculators covering short positions in the Euro and the GBP, reducing the overall short exposure by the USD. Most of the net selling pressure focused on the Japanese Yen and the CAD. So the market is now adopting a more cautious tone.

So don't expect the CAD to break 1.41 with a great deal of momentum. The market needs a reason for the next move and for now there isn't one.