Global Markets in Turmoil: Tariffs, Tech Meltdown, and Inflation Fears Spark Selloff

28.02.2025

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar 1.4330-1.4550

Euro 1.4920-1.5130

Sterling 1.8080-1.8300

WTI Oil (opening level) $69.32

The CAD is opening at 1.4436 ( 0.6927 )

Headlines

· Trump reaffirmed that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect next week on March 4 and announced additional 10% tariffs on Chinese imports on the same date, the day an important meeting of the Chinese political leadership is set to begin.

· UK looks set to win a carve-out from Trump’s tariff threats as the latter said he would look to secure a trade deal with the UK that would see it avoiding tariffs. Trump refused to provide security guarantees for Ukraine in the form of a peacekeeping force.

· US initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 to 242,000 in the third week of February, above expectations of 221,000. This was the highest initial weekly claims number since a spike in early December, as the four week average of claims before yesterday’s number was 216k. Meanwhile, continuing claims fell by 5k to 1,862k, below the expected 1,870k.

· US pending home sales fell 4.6% in January 2025, following a revised 4.1% decline in December 2024, pushing the index to a record low of 70.6, below the expected 1.3% drop.

· US durable goods orders rose 3.1% to $282.3 billion in January 2025, exceeding expectations of a 2% increase, following a revised 1.8% drop in December. The rebound was driven by a 9.8% surge in transportation equipment, especially nondefense aircraft and parts (93.9%).

· Tokyo's core CPI rose 2.2% year-on-year in February 2025, down from 2.5% in January and below the 2.3% forecast. Despite this slowdown, inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for the fourth month, supporting a hawkish monetary policy outlook.US Weekly

Key Points

· Equities: Tech selloff deepens; Nvidia -8.5%; Trump confirms 25% EU tariffs, new Mexico/Canada levies

· Volatility: VIX jumps 10.6%; Nasdaq 100 VIX spikes; PCE inflation in focus

· Digital Assets: Bitcoin -5.9% to $79.5K; Crypto stocks fall; Trump’s trade war fuels risk-off flows

· Currencies: US firms across the board on Trump tariffs, weak risk sentiment

· Fixed Income: US yield sink further all along the curve on weak risk sentiment, soft US data

· Commodities: Broad weakness as gold and silver correction deepens

· Macro events: Germany flash Feb. CPI, Canada GDP growth rate, US core PCE price index

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