Canadian Election Watch: Trade, Inflation, and Consumer Confidence in Focus

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3760-1.3990

Euro                 1.5640-1.5880

Sterling            1.8400-1.8640

WTI Oil (opening level) $63.92

The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3870 ( 0.7210 ) 

Headlines 

·    Cargo shipments from China to the US have plummeted by as much as 60% since the US raised tariffs to 145% in early April, and this reduction will soon be felt by American consumers. By mid-May, thousands of companies will need to replenish inventories, which could lead to empty shelves, higher prices, and "Covid-like" shortages, as well as significant layoffs in industries such as trucking, logistics, and retail.

·    As Trump’s presidency approaches the 100-day day mark his approval ratings on the economy are at the lowest, with only 39% of Americans approving of his economic stewardship, and his tariffs rollout is also deeply unpopular.

·    The University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment rose to 52.2 in April 2025 from 50.8 but fell for the fourth month to its lowest since July 2022, amid concerns over trade policy and inflation risks.

·    Briton’s confidence in the economy over the next 12 months has fallen to the lowest on record, since 1978, polling firm Ipsos MORI said on Sunday, with 75% expecting the economy to get worse over the next 12 months, up 8 percentage points since March, Ipsos said.

Key Points

• Equities: Tech rally continues; tariff uncertainty; busy earnings week

·    Volatility: VIX drops below 25; cautious rise in VIX futures; big data week ahead

·    Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady near $94,000; crypto stocks mixed; bullish momentum holds

·    Currencies: USD trades steady with focus on trade developments, BOJ and US jobs report

·    Fixed Income: US Treasury yields trade near two-week lows

·    Commodities: Crude rebounds, Gold lower as correction risks rise