USD Hits 3-Month High Against CAD Amid Market Caution Pre-Election

Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:

US Dollar        1.3780-1.3970

Euro                 1.4920-1.5120

Sterling            1.7900-1.8130

WTI Oil (opening level) $67.70

We are starting the day looking at the 3 month high for the USD against the CAD. Interest rate changes last week were built into the market before the big cut of .5% bps by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday.

We are just swimming in the range of 1.39 but not smashing through it.

It could be lower still because of the price of oil coming back below $68 a barrel, but it is not likely during the next 2 weeks as we are waiting for the USA election to happen.

The markets are awaiting the results of the USA election in 14 days. Don't count on the markets getting any real clarity until a week after the vote. I heard the results may change from Monday night after the vote. I could not believe my ears when I heard how the system in the USA is so completely different from state to state. In Michigan, they said that they will likely not have a final result until Saturday. Why will it take 5 days to count the vote? That is crazy in this day and age of computer system being able to count the results in minutes.

So look for the USD to trade strongly in a modest range until the results come in.

I will wait for the final results to come in before I tell you what I think will happen with the USD in the next few months. I was correct in my January 2021 assessment. ( hint - Trump a consistent range. Harris serious weakness )

Around the world

There are elections in Japan - will it mean more spending (inflationary) going forward?

Budget discussions in France- if they move to become fiscally responsible (increase taxes and reduce spending) and look to reduce the deficit going forward, it will have an affect on the EURO.

United Kingdom autumn budget- a likely pivotal event since it is a new government with new priorities, that will look to raise spending and taxes to help grow the economy.

USA Jobs report (non farm payroll) on Friday- the last big number to reported before the election and the number will likely be modest - but look for any and all revisions of the previous months reports.